Finland expects Russian attack three to five years after the end of the war in Ukraine

The Finnish Armed Forces believe that Russia may attack or resort to provocations on the border to test NATO's response three to five years after the end of the war in Ukraine, said Sami Nurmi, the head of the Finnish Armed Forces' strategy department, in an interview with YLE.

According to him, the Finnish military takes into account the calculations of colleagues from other countries regarding Russian aggression. But at the same time, they monitor the development of events on the border with Russia and draw their own conclusions.

"Various sources have spoken publicly about three to five years. Our calculations are similar. It is important for us to closely monitor developments, update our own assessments, and act accordingly," he said.

Nurmi said that Russia's recovery from the war in Ukraine and traditional troop deployments will take years. Modernization will take even longer. But Russia is capable of deploying quickly for a limited strike.

"A limited concentration of forces can happen very quickly. Russia has the ability to do this, this was seen in Ukraine when the war began," the military officer said.

As the publication notes, the last time Russia's capabilities were publicly assessed was by Danish military intelligence. According to it, Russia could attack its neighbors in six months to two years, and would be capable of a wider war in Europe in five years if Europe's defenses are not strengthened.

The European Union also assessed in the spring that Europe should be ready to defend itself within five years.

In recent weeks, several international media outlets have reported on the growing Russian presence on the border with Finland based on satellite imagery.

• On May 16, 2025, it was reported that representatives of the Finnish energy industry proposed building a series of wind farms along the eastern border with Russia.
• On May 19, the NYT reported that Russia is strengthening military infrastructure near the border with Finland. NATO believes that Moscow could attack the country in five years.
• On May 21 , it was reported that Finland had completed the first 35 km of a 4.5-meter-high fence it is building on its closed eastern border with Russia to counter illegal migration.