Ukraine to ask allies for emergency air defence assistance – FT
Kyiv will ask allies at the Ukraine defence contact group meeting on Friday for urgent shipments of surface-to-air missiles, fearful that an acute shortage could allow Russia to launch widespread bombing attacks, Financial Times reports, citing three European officials.
"Short-range air defence has been a topic that has been raised increasingly by the Ukrainians," said one European official.
"If they use them all up, it opens the space up for air forces. If Russia can get in with dumb bombers, Ukraine will be in trouble," they added, referring to unguided munitions dropped from planes.
The officials added that "it’s looking grim."
Earlier this year, Western intelligence warned that Russia was amassing fighter jets and attack helicopters close to the front line in Ukraine. That "prompted an immediate surge of air defence assets, including via a $2bn US support package announced in late February," FT reports.
US intelligence documents leaked online in April suggested Ukraine's air defence stockpile had been systematically depleted due to Russia’s constant drone and missile attacks.
In the leaked documents, the US assessed in late February that Kyiv might run out of ammunition for five critical air defence systems by May 23.
Sir Richard Barrons, former head of the British armed forces, says that if that turned out to be true, "this type of material cannot be replaced by the West easily or quickly."
"There is a very hard choice here: either the West significantly and rapidly ramps up its defence industrial output… or the West elects not to do this and runs the risk of Ukraine simply not having the means to fight effectively and therefore be defeated and abandoned," he added.
A second European official, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, told FT that air defence supplies "is a problem which is constantly raised by Ukraine."
Colin Kahl, the US undersecretary of defence for policy, said air defence was a pressing concern for the Ukrainians.
"Their three top priorities are our three top priorities: air defence, artillery and mechanised and armoured forces and everything that’s needed to maintain and sustain those vehicles," Mr Kahl said earlier this week.
For now, some Western officials remain optimistic, citing Russia’s continuing lack of air superiority and the continued inflow of western weapons into Ukraine.
"We don’t see any danger that Ukraine will lose air superiority," said one. "Ukraine has enough [air defence] to defend itself… [although] everyone is low, we’ve had a year of conflict, and nobody has inexhaustible supplies."
As Financial Times reports, Western capitals fear that without proper air defences, "a long-planned counter-offensive against occupying Russian troops could falter."