US, EU intelligence contradicts Trump, Putin on Ukrainian troops' encirclement in Kursk Oblast

Ukrainian soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast have faced intense Russian pressure but are not encircled, according to U.S. and European intelligence assessments relayed to the White House by agencies including the CIA, Reuters reported. 

This contradicts repeated assertions by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Three officials familiar with the data told Reuters that while Ukraine has lost ground, the situation does not match the dire narrative pushed by both leaders.

Putin’s March 13 claim that Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast were cut off and faced a "surrender or die" ultimatum was dismissed by Reuters as disinformation aimed at portraying Russia as magnanimous while gaining leverage in ceasefire talks.

Trump echoed this, alleging encirclement in multiple statements, including after a Wednesday call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The U.S. National Security Council sidestepped direct questions on the intelligence, instead pointing Reuters to a joint statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, noting Trump and Zelenskyy’s agreement to keep sharing Kursk-related intelligence.

The White House, CIA, and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined comment.

Ukraine’s Kursk operation began on August 6, 2024, seizing towns like Sudzha to bring the war onto Russian soil.

By March 2025, Russia ramped up efforts, reclaiming Sudzha, while propagandists and war correspondents pushed encirclement claims—echoed by Trump but refuted by Zelenskyy, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

The Institute for the Study of War found no evidence of significant Ukrainian forces trapped, aligning with the intelligence assessments.