German intelligence: Large-scale Russian attack on NATO unlikely

Russia is preparing for conflict with Western countries, but a large-scale attack on NATO members is not anticipated, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said at an event organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, Zeit reported.

Kahl suggested that Russia could launch an attack on NATO territory in the coming years.

"Russia is preparing for war with the West. Military confrontation is becoming a plausible option for the Kremlin," Kahl said.

He speculated that by the end of the decade, Russian forces might be capable of advancing on Western territories. However, he emphasized that a full-scale assault on European NATO states is unlikely.

Kahl proposed that Moscow might target Norway's Arctic Svalbard island or use "little green men" tactics in the Baltic states under the guise of protecting Russian minorities.

According to Kahl, such actions aim to undermine NATO's collective security commitments under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and fracture the Alliance.

German intelligence assesses that Russian leadership doubts whether NATO members would uphold Article 5 obligations in critical situations.

"There are currently no signs of concrete Russian intentions for war. However, if such views gain dominance within the Kremlin, the risk of military conflict will rise in the coming years," Kahl said.

Before any potential war, Russia is likely to attempt to split NATO, possibly by aligning certain member states with its interests. Russian President Vladimir Putin "will test the West's red lines and escalate tensions further," he said.