Kremlin fears that return of occupants from the front could threaten Putin's regime – intelligence

Russia is worried that the return of tens of thousands of occupiers and former prisoners from the war against Ukraine will provoke a surge in crime and social destabilization. About this said The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to them, the situation is being compared to the 1990s, when veterans of the Afghan war created gangs and mafia groups. The Russian authorities allegedly recognize that even now the demobilization of soldiers can bring "serious internal risks."

"According to the Kremlin, veterans can become a catalyst for criminal and political destabilization, capable of undermining the system built around personal loyalty to Putin," the SVR reports.

It is noted that the issue is not only the psychological trauma received at the front or the criminal past of a significant number of military personnel. The catalyst may be the sharp contrast between frontline payments and the standard of living in civilian life – the occupiers' salaries and bonuses are several times higher than the average income in the country.

"Returning to the reality of low salaries and a ruined economy, veterans can become a source of social explosion," the intelligence report says.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that tens of thousands of convicts are involved in the war against Ukraine. According to the Russian penitentiary service, between 120,000 and 180,000 prisoners have been mobilized. A significant number of them have already returned to Russian cities, where the number of serious crimes involving persons with military status is growing.

According to foreign intelligence, since 2023, military courts have received at least 989 cases of murder and serious beatings that resulted in death. The number of verdicts under these articles has also increased: in 2022 – 38, in 2023 – already 266, in 2024 – 346, and in just nine months of 2025, the courts considered 377 new cases.

The Russian authorities are responding to this by strengthening repressive mechanisms. In particular, the penitentiary service has been allowed to use more special means against prisoners, from batons and stun guns to dogs and water cannons. Formally, this was done ostensibly to "protect staff," but in reality it was done to control prisoners who are becoming increasingly aggressive.

"The return from the front of people who are accustomed to violence and impunity could turn into a new internal war for the Kremlin. If at the beginning these veterans were the mainstay of the regime, then over time they may become the force that will destroy Russia from within," the intelligence noted.

• According to the SZR, every day in the Russian army 1,200 new contractors are hired. This almost covers the losses.
• on October 1, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expressed protest against the "autumn draft" in Russia and called on the men in occupation to surrender to the Armed Forces of Ukraine if they are forced to the front.