Experts explain why the war will not stop even after Putin's death

Even after the death of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, the Russian war against Ukraine will not end. It will simply change. This opinion was expressed by Russian researchers who LIGA.net interviewed for the text "What will happen if Putin dies?"

All of the experts interviewed emphasize that even if the post-Putin government in Russia becomes extremely liberal, its attitude toward Ukraine and the West will remain unchanged.

According to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, a change in leadership in Russia could speed up peace talks. If, for example, a politician like the current Russian prime minister comes to power Mikhail Mishustin, Kremlin will become more flexible in negotiations. Although, at the same time, the conditions for ending the war will differ little from what Putin is proposing.

"They will make demands and put pressure on Ukraine. There will be no return to the 1991 borders or withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories. There will be tough negotiations, but the likelihood of the war ending will be greater," the political scientist is convinced.

Russian opposition leader and chairman of the Congress of People's Deputies Ilya Ponomarev agreed: even if the liberal Mishustin comes to power in Russia, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine will not change.

"Mishustin is 100% against continuing the war. This does not mean that he will surrender and return Crimea. The deal proposed by Trump is the perfect solution for him to just wrap things up. Although Russia's attitude toward Ukraine will not change, they will declare the continuation of Putin's course. The active phase of the war will simply end," he said.

"Any Russian regime will remain hostile to Ukraine and the West," confirms Konstantin Skorkin, a political observer and author at the Carnegie Institution of Berlin. However, post-Putin Russia will turn from offensive tactics to the policy of bribery, economic infiltration, sabotage and sabotage rather than direct military action. "For the new government, the main thing will be the lifting of sanctions and the return of access to foreign assets, so it will agree to end the hostilities and make certain concessions," he said.

We should not expect major changes in Russia just because Putin is no longer on the throne, says Keir Giles, Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House.

"The only question for the war against Ukraine and Europe is whether any new leadership figure will be able to take a more informed view of the damage the war is doing to Russia itself. And whether they can see the advantage of a different balance between Russia's dream of reclaiming its empire and the long-term systemic damage it does to the country's future," he concluded.

• In his New Year's address, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy reminded that Russia never finishes their wars on their own. Only pressure from others, which they themselves call a "gesture of goodwill."