Klimkin estimated a June 2026 deadline for the ceasefire: Important but not critical for Trump

The June deadline to end hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war is important, but not critical for the US president Donald Trump as part of the campaign for the fall 2026 elections. This opinion was expressed by Pavlo Klimkin, minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2019) and analyst, in the new episode of "Klimkin Explains" on the LIGA.net's YouTube channel.

There are different groups of influence in the US administration and in American politics in general that have "quite different attitudes" toward Russia and the restoration of relations with it and Europe, and they have different views on the time frame for resolving the war, Klimkin said.

"For some, the midterm elections in November are an important story. Right now, it looks like the Democrats may win in the Congress (House of Representatives – Ed.). This is not a disaster for Trump yet. But if he loses the Senate as well... So far, again, it doesn't look like that, but, nevertheless, this chance has not been ruled out, and there is a lot of speculation around it," the analyst noted.

According to him, the recent US elections, although not "super revealing," demonstrate "a real drive toward the Democrats."

And whether Trump and the Republicans will succeed in stopping him depends on foreign policy, which "works" for some Americans, the former minister said.

"Venezuela worked, I think that Cuba will work," he added.

Klimkin said that he did not believe that "Trump will get off" the Russian-Ukrainian war, noting that "absolutely critical stories" for the American president are "us and Middle East".

According to the expert, only in these wars can the ego and political legacy of the US leader be satisfied, and this protects him from attacks from Democrats or those Republicans who "do not want to do anything in the world at all and say that the United States is above all else."

The analyst noted that linking the peace settlement to June is quite logical, since if "something happens" this month, it will be possible to "demonstrate another great success during the active phase of the [election] campaign."

"Is this tie-up critical for Trump as a president and as a person who wants to win the election? I don't feel that way right now. It's important, but not critical," he summarized.

In the same episode, Klimkin said that he believed a ceasefire was possible, but indicated that he did not believe in a sustainable end to the war.

The full conversation is available at the link at the beginning of the text or below:

• On February 6, president Zelenskyy announced that Washington was offering Moscow to end the war against Ukraine by the beginning of summer.
• Foreign minister Sybiha said that Ukraine wants to accelerate efforts to end the war and use the momentum of the US-mediated talks before other factors come into play, such as the election campaign for the midterms to the Congress.
• On February 9, US ambassador to NATO questioned Zelenskyy's statement on Washington's proposal to end the war by summer.