Iran-Israel truce is important for Ukraine – researcher Danilov explains why

The truce between Iran and Israel is important for Ukraine as well. It affects oil prices, draws the world's attention back to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and reduces global competition for arms prices. This was stated by Serhiy Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, to LIGA.net .

As for oil prices, they are falling after US President Donald Trump's posts about the war between Iran and Israel. For example, Brent crude oil futures (on which the price of Russian Urals oil depends) fell by 5.3% to $67.66 per barrel. And Russia is financing the war against Ukraine, among other things, through oil and gas revenues.

Iran currently ranks seventh in the world in terms of oil production. It controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20%-30% of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. After Israel's first strike, oil prices rose by 8% due to the fear of blocking the Strait, but Iran did not do so.

Oil prices fell after Tehran's strike on the US air base in Qatar on June 23, and then fell further after Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Russia needs rising oil prices, but China, which is Iran's most important ally and the only major buyer of crude oil, is interested in low prices. India and other Middle Eastern countries have also made it clear that attacks on oil production and export infrastructure and shipping are not in their interests., writes Reuters.

In addition, the ceasefire between the two countries draws the world's attention back to Russia's aggression against Ukraine and reduces global competition for arms prices, Danilov said .

"Another factor is that the defeat of not only Iran, but also Russia in the Middle East has been recorded, and its regional capabilities have been reduced. Trump may now look like a winning cowboy, which could give him a new impetus to seek ways to end the war in Ukraine," Danilov said .

Oleksandr Kraev, head of the North America program at the Ukrainian Prism, noted that by striking Iran, Trump showed his readiness for decisive action and Moscow's weakness, as Tehran is its ally. There is also an opinion that the US president may also strike at Russia itself.

"Russia and Iran are different cases for Trump. He has been ready to strike at the Iranians since his last cadence, as seen in the assassination of Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani in 2020. It's different with Russia," Kraev says .

• on June 24, Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Iran after 11 days of Operation Rising Lion, which was aimed at destroying the country's nuclear capabilities.
• However, the IDF announced the discovery of rockets that Iran launched toward Israel, contrary to Trump's claims that the ceasefire had already begun, that the ceasefire was already supposedly in effect.
• After the ceasefire was broken Trump lashed out at Iran and Israel and said the countries did not know what they were doing.
• Israel acknowledged the attack and explained that it was in response to Iran's launch of rockets also after the ceasefire was announced. The attack destroyed a radar installation.