Strengthening the Armed Forces, European troops and US intelligence: NYT shows the guarantees offered to Ukraine

The peace plan between the United States and Europe to prevent future Russian attacks on Ukraine includes strengthening the latter's army, deploying European troops on its territory, and making greater use of American intelligence, declares the New York Times, citing unnamed officials familiar with the drafts of the proposal.

U.S. and European diplomats who met with Ukrainian leaders in Berlin over the past two days largely endorsed two documents outlining security guarantees, officials said publicly and privately.

According to media reports, these security documents are intended to form the basis of a broader agreement to achieve a ceasefire, and are also intended to convince Ukraine to cede its territory within the framework of the peace agreement and refuse to formally join NATO.

One of the two documents lays out general principles: what two unnamed U.S. officials and several European diplomats said was a commitment akin to a guarantee like article 5 of NATO about collective security.

The second part of the agreement, described by U.S. officials as an operational document between the militaries, is more detailed, explaining how U.S. and European forces will work with the Ukrainian military to ensure that Russia does not attempt to seize Ukrainian territory again in the years ahead.

In particular, one US official said that the second document is "very specific" on how to prevent further incursions and punish Russia if they occur.

As the NYT points out, the first priority is a plan to bring the size of the Armed Forces to "peacetime level" in 800,000 people with modern equipment and training, which will be a strong deterrent to Russia.

The document also provides details on European-led military forces that will assist Ukraine by operating on its territory to ensure the security of its air and sea space. Unnamed officials declined to provide specifics on which countries would deploy troops to Ukraine, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that several states had promised to do so privately.

"Those troops are expected to be based in western Ukraine, away from any cease-fire line, to serve as another level of deterrence against any future Russian aggression," the NYT points out.

According to the source, French and British diplomats are coordinating a proposal to deploy European forces in Ukraine as part of a coalition of the willing. The anonymous European diplomat described the commitments set out in the security document as a "menu" from which the countries concerned could choose their level of support.

The head of the United States Donald Trump has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of sending U.S. troops to Ukraine. Instead, the operational document details how the United States will "use its vast intelligence systems" to help monitor the ceasefire and detect Russian actions aimed at re-invading Ukraine, the officials said.

"The Americans would also help verify Russian compliance and make sure that minor skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine do not spiral into a new war," the media outlet wrote.

The NYT added that the document also provides details on how the United States will help identify Russia's attempts to conduct "false flag" operations, which Moscow could use as a pretext to resume hostilities: "Officials have said for years that is a common Russian tactic."

• on December 15, European leaders signed a joint statement on their and the United States' commitments to guaranteeing Ukraine's security and reconstruction. Some provisions thereof correspond to the NYT publication.
• German chancellor Merz said that according to future guarantees provided by the United States and Europe to Ukraine after the ceasefire, Western peacekeepers under certain circumstances can repel attacks by Russian forces.