GDP downgraded forecast after Kakhovka dam collapse may have been wrong, govt says

A Ukrainian economy ministry official suggested on Tuesday that it might have been too early to downgrade the GDP growth forecast after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.

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Natalia Horshkova, who heads strategic planning and macroeconomic forecasting at the ministry of economy of Ukraine, said the ministry had initially forecast growth of 3.2 percent in 2023, but in June, after the dam collapse, it was adjusted to 2.8 percent.

"We were probably in a hurry. Now, in our working calculations, we see an opportunity to reach a real growth of 5 percent this year," she told an event organised by the the Centre for Economic Strategy, a think-tank.

"I am not sure whether we will revise [the forecast] towards greater optimism, as the risks remain quite significant. And we are part of the budget process, and we would not want to revise the basis for budgeting every time, as if on a seesaw."

Ukraine’s economy should recover by another five percent in 2024, the current forecast of the economy ministry suggests.

Last week, the Ukrainian central bank said Ukraine's economy was recovering faster than expected, and improved its GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 2 to 2.9 percent.