Expert: possible US strike on Iran is positive for Ukraine, Tehran cannot give in to demands now

Iran is currently unable to meet the demands of the United States in the negotiations, and a possible American strike on the Islamic Republic would be a positive for Ukraine. About this for text by LIGA.net said Serhiy Danylov, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies.

According to him, so far the Iranian regime cannot give in to America's demands.

"The ayatollahs want agreements, negotiations, to stall for time. But they cannot agree to give up uranium enrichment, to external control over it, to give up and control their missile program, to stop supporting the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorists, to stop political repression in the country," the expert said.

In his opinion, the US president Donald Trump's administration may sacrifice the fourth point, but will insist on the first two, and Tehran cannot agree to this at the moment.

Danylov noted that the US strike on Iran was supposed to begin on February 1, but it has been postponed: perhaps the US military was not ready.

"I do not rule out a hybrid format: negotiations and strikes. This time, there will be strikes not only on the nuclear program, but also on headquarters, barracks, and deployment sites of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps", – said the expert.

He noted that Tehran would respond to this strike and could even block the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

Iranian missile strikes could target U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan – Danylov believes that all of these locations will be targeted.

"For the first time, they are threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz (the entrance to the Persian Gulf – Ed.) in a way that seems possible. There is a possibility, unlike previous times when the Iranians were bluffing. In addition, they have ways to mine the Strait of Hormuz or use maritime drones, a fairly large mosquito fleet," the expert noted.

He called the fall of the Iranian regime the most positive but unlikely outcome of the US strikes: the attack will certainly lead to its weakening, as it did after the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June 2025, which "showed the weakness of the ayatollahs."

The US attack will also result in a "new outbreak of protests" in Iran in late February or March, the expert added.

At the same time, Danylov noted that the US attack is a positive for Ukraine, as oil prices "will not jump much."

"But the weakening of Iran is the weakening of Russia. Russia's ally is weakening, which is a positive for us. The only thing is that the scarce missiles for the Patriot and the attention of the world media will go there first," he concluded.

• For two other scenarios of events in Iran – the resumption of protests and the regime's intensification of terror – see texts LIGA.net.
• Axios' sources said that the talks between the United States, Iran and a number of Arab and Muslim countries scheduled for February 6 in Istanbul.