NYT: Russia is building up forces on the border with Finland. An invasion is possible in five years

Russia believes that access to the Arctic is the key to great power status

Porokhnia Yana

News editor at LIGA.net

11:31

Finnish Army (Illustrative photo: x.com/Maavoimat)

Russia is strengthening its military infrastructure near the border with Finland. NATO believes Moscow could attack the country in five years, reports The New York Times, citing unnamed officials.

Satellite imagery taken in February 2025 shows rows of about a hundred new tents that appeared about a year ago in Kamenka, a Russian base less than 65 km from Finland.

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It has also been noted that Russian helicopters have returned to the base near Murmansk, above the Arctic Circle, after almost 20 years. In addition, dozens of military aircraft were recently spotted at the Olenya air base, also in the Arctic and less than 160 km from the Finnish border.

NATO officials confirm the images.

Satellite photo, photo: Planet Labs

According to them, Russia's military expansion is nothing like the build-up along the border with Ukraine before the full-scale invasion in 2022. Now there are few Russian troops along the Finnish border and, according to the Finns, they do not pose a threat so far.

However, according to Finnish military officials, once the intense phase of the war in Ukraine is over, Russia could move thousands of soldiers to the Finnish border. According to preliminary estimates by the Finns, they have about five years before Moscow can build up its forces. The number of Russian troops could triple, according to them .

"The Russian military has undergone a significant expansion of forces. After the war, the ground forces are likely to be larger than they were by 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it is clear that they will prioritize areas facing NATO," said a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C .

NATO officials reportedly agree with him. According to one unnamed NATO official, whenever the war against Ukraine ends, Russia will move its troops further north. Access to the Arctic, in the Kremlin's view, is key to great power status, the unnamed official said .

on March 20, the President of Lithuania said that the country is preparing for a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2030.
On March 30, the Estonian Defense Minister said that the ceasefire in Ukraine would sharply increase the security threat to the Baltic states as Russia continues to rearm and redeploy troops to NATO's northeastern flank.
On May 6, the MIDD report said that Russia is stepping up provocations and military intelligence against NATO near Latvia.
On May 8, it was reported that the Netherlands is preparing for a Russian attack a year after the end of the war against Ukraine.
On May 19, the Polish ambassador to Ukraine said that the prospect of a Russian attack on NATO depends on whether Ukraine wins the war.