Russia intensifies provocations and military intelligence for NATO near Latvia – MIDD report
Russia has increased its surveillance of NATO military activity in the Baltic Sea, Delfi reports, citing a report by the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD), which assesses threats from the Russian Federation near Latvia's borders.
According to the report, the Russian Federation is resorting to aggressive actions, such as violating airspace and dangerously approaching NATO aircraft and ships.
In addition, MIDD reports on the reorganization of the Russian Armed Forces in 2024. Instead of the Western Military District, the Leningrad and Moscow Military Districts have been created. This is formally presented as a response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO.
New units are also being formed as part of the reform. A new army corps has been created in Karelia, 2 motorized rifle brigades near Latvia are being transformed into divisions, and the Baltic Fleet's marine brigade in Kaliningrad will also receive division status.
Despite these actions, the report notes that there is currently no real increase in the military threat – most of Russia's resources are focused on the war against Ukraine.
The Russian army is also limited in conducting even tactical exercises due to a lack of personnel and equipment.
MIDD reports that this year the Russian Federation and Belarus are planning joint strategic exercises "West-2025", which are mainly to be held on the territory of Belarus.
"It will likely take several years, perhaps even decades, to fully achieve the goals of the reform, but it is expected that the number of Russian armed forces near the borders of Latvia will begin to grow as the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine decreases," the service notes.
At the same time, intelligence emphasizes that under current conditions, Russia does not have the capabilities for another strategic-level ground operation.
- On February 5, President Zelenskyy said that in 2025, Russian dictator Putin would deploy his troops in Belarus to draw Poland and the Baltic states into the war.
- On April 4, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry reported that NATO is ready to respond to the Zapad-2025 military exercises of Russia and Belarus, if necessary.
- On April 28, the Polish Ministry of Defense promised an "adequate" response to the joint exercises between the Russian Federation and Belarus.
