At the current rate, Russia will need another 231 years to completely take over Ukraine – Forbes

At the current pace, in order to capture the entire territory of Ukraine, Russia will need to fight until 2256 and lose more than 100 million occupants. These calculations were published by Forbes, referring to existing statistics.

In April 2025, Russian troops managed to seize about 68 square miles (98 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory. This cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded soldiers. These are the figures cited by a statistician who analyzes information from, among other sources, including the General Staff of Ukraine.

Konrad Muzyka, an analyst at the Polish company Rochan Consulting, said that Ukrainian losses during this period were "minimal.".

Ukraine has an area of 233,000 square miles (about 603,628 square kilometers), 19% of which is currently under temporary occupation by the Russian Federation.

According to U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, Russia recruits approximately 30,000 new recruits into its army every month. As many of the wounded eventually return to the front lines, the Russian armed forces are gaining more men than they are losing every month.

As a result, according to Cavoli, Russian forces in Ukraine are actually growing.

on April 3, at a hearing in the US Congress, he said that at least 600,000 Russian troops are currently on the territory of Ukraine, the most since the beginning of the full-scale war and almost twice as many as in February 2022.

According to Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the record recruitment is explained by high bonuses for signing a contract and speculation that the war will end soon.

Cavoli emphasized that Russia's defense budget currently accounts for 40% of total government spending, the highest figure since the Cold War.

He noted that the Russian economy is on a war footing and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

For comparison, the US spends only 13% of its budget on defense.

"Russia's leadership is not only ready to increase the tax burden on Russians, but is also changing economic priorities in favor of the military-industrial complex," said Oleksandr Kolyandr, analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Cavoli warned that despite the losses, Russia has shown no intention of stopping the fighting. On the contrary, its leadership is preparing for a protracted confrontation with the West.

"The Russian regime has rebuilt its military, economic and social structures to support what it calls a long-term confrontation with the West," said General.

• on February 5, President Zelenskyy said that in 2025 Russian dictator Putin would deploy his troops in Belarus to draw Poland and the Baltic states into a war.
• On April 4, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry reported that NATO is ready to respond to the military exercises of Russia and Belarus "West 2025" if necessary.
• On April 28, the Polish Defense Ministry promised an "adequate" response to the joint exercises of Russia and Belarus.