Russia outpacing United States, Europe combined 3-to-1 in wartime shell production – CNN
Armed Forces of Ukraine (Photo: Facebook, General Staff)

Russia produces about 250,000 artillery munitions a month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production provided by CNN and sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine.

Together, the United States and Europe can produce only about 1.2 million munitions per year for shipment to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told the publication.

According to CNN's sources, Russia now produces about 10,000 shells per day, while the Ukrainian side can count on only 2,000 per day. According to a representative of European intelligence, in some places along the front the ratio is even worse.

Military analysts noted that the outcome of the war will depend on "who fires the most artillery shells."

"The number one issue that we’re watching right now is the munitions. It’s those artillery shells, because that’s where Russia really [is] mounting a significant production advantage and mounting a significant advantage on the battlefield," the NATO official said.

A senior military official noted that the U.S. military has set a goal of producing 100,000 artillery shells per month by the end of 2025 –- less than half of Russia's monthly production -- and even that number is now out of reach because $60 billion in funding for Ukraine is blocked in the U.S. Congress.

"What we are in now is a production war. The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war," he said.

On February 26, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine received only 30% of the 1 million ammunition promised by the European Union. This indicator has not changed since November 2023.

On March 7, the president of the Czech Republic,  Petr Pavel, announced that the allies had collected all the necessary money for the purchase of 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine.

The next day, Czechia denied Pavel's statement that the country managed to raise funds for the purchase of 800,000 artillery shells: they noted that Pavel was probably talking about the first stage of supply, and the initiative has not yet been closed.

On March 10, the president of the Czech Republic said that the Ukrainian military could receive 800,000 artillery ammunition within a few weeks.