Experts explain what will happen if Trump puts pressure on Europe to help Ukraine

The PURL program is an ideal tool for putting pressure on the US president Donald Trump to Europe through Ukraine, said Jakob Funk Kierkegaard, a leading expert on defense economics at the Bruegel Center. America can only resort to restricting supplies, but this will also play into the hands of Russia and cost more Ukrainian lives, said Amanda Paul, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Center (EPC). They spoke about this for LIGA.net's text on the situation with Greenland.

Kierkegaard noted that Trump will look for any opportunity to put pressure on European partners using the issue of Ukraine.

"As long as PURL (the program under which European partners buy american weapons for Ukraine. – Ed.) includes the purchase of weapons, especially Patriot missiles produced in the United States, which is very difficult," the expert noted.

According to him, to counteract this, Ukraine would have to make its air defense completely dependent only on weapons made in Europe, but "it is unrealistic" to realize in the short term.

The US president is aware of this and is ready to use such pressure, Kierkegaard said.

He also confirmed that Trump does not need to withdraw from NATO to stop the supply, as he can simply block export licenses (ITAR).

Although PURL is profitable for the US military-industrial complex, Trump's unpredictability remains a major risk, said EPC analyst Paul.

She believes that the US president's pressure may lead to delays in arms supplies to Ukraine rather than a complete cessation, but even this scenario could have dramatic consequences for Kyiv.

In 2026, Ukraine will start receiving a loan from the European Union 90 billion euros, scheduled for two years, but it will happen only in the second quarter.

As for whether the PURL support, in the wake of Greenland, will be able to hold the Ukrainian front until the loan is received, Paul said that Kyiv should be able to cope in this time if the approval of the US aid is slow or uncertain.

However, the expert believes that Ukraine will be able to survive this "gap period" only at a reduced level of intensity: "Currently, the existing European contracts and stocks are just enough to supply the units on the front line and prevent a collapse."

However, she noted that this would potentially require stricter restrictions on the use of ammunition and a reduction in the number of advanced weapons.

"This will mean that Ukraine will probably be able to hold the line for [a] period of time, but will still be under increased pressure and strain and will have difficulty launching or sustaining large-scale offensive operations until full funding flows resume. Ultimately, this will help Russia and cost more Ukrainian lives," Paul concluded.

• Why were NATO secretary general Rutte and European leaders so quick to make a deal on Greenland, accepting the US "golden dome" and US mineral rights in the Arctic? Part of the answer lies in Ukraine's critical dependence on the PURL initiative – read more in the text by LIGA.net.