Reuters: Europeans fear Trump peace deal won't punish or weaken Russia

Whatever the results of the latest attempts by the US President Donald Trump to end Russia's war against Ukraine, Europe is afraid of the prospect of a deal that does not punish or weaken Russia, further jeopardizing the continent's security. This was reported by the agency Reuters.

The article says that Europe may even have to accept a growing economic partnership between Washington, its traditional defender in NATO, and Moscow, which most European governments and the Alliance itself consider the greatest threat to European security.

Although Ukrainians and Europeans have managed to resist some of the points of the US plan to end the fighting, which was seen as extremely pro-Russian, any agreement is likely to still carry significant risks for the continent.

However, Europe's ability to influence the deal is limited, not least because it lacks the hard power to dictate terms.

It did not have representatives at the weekend talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Florida, and will only observe the visit of the U.S. special envoy from afar Steve Witkoff to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the journalists noted.

"I get the impression that there is a gradual realization that at some point there will be a bad deal. Trump clearly wants a deal. What is very uncomfortable for the Europeans... is that he wants a deal according to the logic of the great powers: "We are the United States, they are Russia, we are the great powers," said Luk van Middelaar, founding director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics think tank.

Secretary of State of the United States Marco Rubio said that the Europeans would be involved in discussions on the role of NATO and the European Union in any peace settlement. But European diplomats find little support for such assurances. They say that almost every aspect of the agreement will affect Europe, from potential territorial concessions to economic cooperation between the United States and Russia.

The latest initiative has also raised new concerns among Europeans about the U.S. commitment to NATO, which ranges from its nuclear umbrella to numerous weapons systems and tens of thousands of troops.

Minister of Defense of Germany Boris Pistorius said last week that Europeans no longer know "which alliances we can trust in the future and which ones will be durable."

Despite Trump's previous criticism of NATO, in June he reaffirmed his commitment to the Alliance and its mutual defense clause in exchange for Europeans' commitment to increase their defense spending.

But Rubio's plans skip the ministerial meeting the NATO Foreign Affairs meeting in Brussels this week can only increase Europe's anxiety amid fears that Moscow's next target could be a member on the Alliance's eastern flank.

European officials say they see no sign that Putin wants to end the war. But if he does, they worry that any deal that doesn't respect Ukraine's territorial integrity could give Russia the courage to attack again beyond its borders.

However, it now seems likely that any peace agreement will allow Moscow to at least maintain control over the Ukrainian lands it has seized by force, regardless of whether the borders are formally changed or not.

The Trump administration has also not dismissed Russian claims to the rest of Donbas, which Moscow has not been able to capture after almost four years of full-scale war.

Moreover, Trump and other U.S. officials have made it clear that they see great opportunities for business deals with Moscow after the war ends. European officials fear that ending Russia's isolation from the Western economy will give Moscow billions of dollars to rebuild its military.

But it is difficult for European leaders to exert much influence on any peaceful settlement, although Europe has provided Ukraine with about €180 billion in aid since Russia's invasion in February 2022.

The EU has a big potential trump card in the form of Russian assets frozen in the bloc. But EU leaders have not yet been able to agree on a proposal to use these assets to finance a €140 billion loan to Ukraine.

To try to show that they could use hard power, a "coalition of the willing" led by France and the United Kingdom pledged to deploy a "support force" as part of postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. Russia has rejected such a force. But even if deployed, it would be modest in size, designed to reinforce Ukrainian forces rather than defend Ukraine on its own, and it would only be able to operate with U.S. support.

• In August, Budanov said that Russia plans to spend by 2036, $1.1 trillion for rearmament to prepare for war with NATO.
• In October, the head of Germany's intelligence service claimed that Russia was allegedly ready to engage in a direct military conflict with NATO and that this may happen by 2029.