Europe debates Ukraine peacekeeping mission with up to 100,000 troops – Reuters

European countries are discussing deploying troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement, as newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear he will not send American forces to provide security guarantees, Reuters reported, citing unnamed officials and diplomats.

The talks, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, are in the early stages but have already revealed disagreements over the mission's objectives, mandate, and even whether such discussions are timely.

Behind the scenes, some officials are exploring how European countries could guarantee Ukraine's security, including by deploying tens of thousands of soldiers on its territory.

Such a mission, however, would increase the risk of direct confrontation with Russia and stretch Europe's military resources, whose arms stocks have been depleted by donations to Ukraine and who are used to relying heavily on U.S. support for major missions.

Trump excluded U.S. troop involvement in securing a ceasefire, insisting during talks in Paris with Macron and Zelenskyy on December 7 that Europeans must take on this role, two sources told Reuters. Similar reports were previously shared by The Wall Street Journal.

Reuters suggests that European forces could be deployed in Ukraine regardless of whether Kyiv secures security guarantees through NATO membership, as it hopes, or bilateral assurances.

"Even if there were a NATO security guarantee, where would the impetus on the ground come from? It would be European so our army chiefs are already preparing plans for European leaders to consider in the future," an unnamed senior European official said.

Major European countries like France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK could form the core of such a mission, according to officials.

Diverging visions for the mission

Officials remain divided over whether a future European mission would focus on traditional peacekeeping—such as monitoring a ceasefire line—or act as a deterrent against further Russian aggression.

Italian officials reportedly favor the former, while French and Ukrainian representatives prioritize the latter.

An anonymous Ukrainian official involved in some of the discussions stated that a deterrent force could be formed by a coalition of approximately five to eight countries.

Analysts and officials have provided varying estimates for the potential size of such a force, emphasizing that much depends on its specific mission. Some experts suggest that a force of around 40,000 troops might be appropriate.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a former Austrian military planner and fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, estimates that such a mission could involve up to 100,000 troops under a rotational scheme, including units preparing for deployment and those recovering afterward.

According to Gady, such a deployment would "severely stretch European land forces."

An unnamed European security official also confirmed that up to 100,000 troops might be necessary.

Gady noted that such forces could be assembled if European countries scaled back other missions, such as in the Balkans. During the 1990s, European nations, the U.S., and other partners deployed around 60,000 troops in Bosnia and 50,000 in partially recognized Kosovo during the wars, though those missions are now significantly smaller.

Additionally, the composition and mandate of any international force for Ukraine remain under discussion, as both must be acceptable to all parties involved.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has stated that such a force should operate under UN auspices. However, other officials argue this would give Russia "too much influence," as the aggressor country holds permanent membership and veto power in the UN Security Council.

Reuters suggests that Europeans may need to persuade the United States "to be involved in some way," at the very least by providing intelligence and other operational support, according to analysts.

Beyond this, the potential rules of engagement for such a mission remain one of the many critical issues yet to be clarified.

"What would happen if a European soldier was shot?" asked a French military official.