Bloomberg modeled the most likely scenario of a Russian attack on NATO
Illustrative photo: occupiers' resource

If Russian dictator Vladimir Putin decides to engage in military conflict with NATO, he is more likely to launch an attack from Lithuania or all three Baltic states at once, according to a Bloomberg Economics modeling study based on interviews with unnamed senior U.S. government officials.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are the only NATO members that were once directly governed by the Soviet Union and have significant Russian populations. They also share long borders with Russia and its satellite, Belarus.

"Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia occupy a special place in Putin's distorted historical imagination. Therefore, these countries on NATO's northeastern flank would become the most likely flashpoint," the agency writes.

The invasion could begin with a staged incident or hybrid attack on a Moscow-Kaliningrad train that passes through Vilnius without stopping. Moscow could create a pretext to stop it and then send in troops under the pretext of protecting Russian citizens remaining in the country, effectively invading Lithuania.

Also likely is a scenario in which Russia, simultaneously with provocations in Lithuania, attacks Estonia and Latvia, deploying its fleet to establish control over the Baltic Sea and severing the land connection of the Baltic countries with Poland in the Suwalki Corridor.

In any case, according to the agency's estimates, a Russian war against the Baltic states, even at the initial stage, would result in the deaths of many people and would likely cause a flow of refugees.

In the first year of such aggression, global production will decrease by 1.3% or $1.5 trillion, which is almost equal to the consequences of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, the agency believes that a Russian attack on NATO territory remains unlikely because Russia currently "does not have the capabilities to do so and would likely not want a war on two fronts."