Chaly: Ukraine will survive the winter, and real talks are possible in February-April if sanctions work

Ukraine will be able to survive the winter of 2025-2026, but it does not have time for one or two years of war. However, if energy sanctions against Moscow work, there will be a window of opportunity for real negotiations early next year. This is the opinion of in a video interview LIGA.net expressed Valeriy Chaly, diplomat, ambassador of Ukraine to the United States (2015-2019).

"I'm sure that... we will survive the winter, we will survive. Although the Russians are constantly hitting, as you can see, the generation [of electricity] – everything – to make everything collapse here. And not just electricity, but water, sewage, and everything. But it's too late," he said.

In his opinion, Ukrainians have been psychologically drawn into this situation for a long time. Chaly believes that if such missile attacks were to occur in 2022, "a lot of Ukrainians would say that we are giving up like the Finns made in due time".

However, the diplomat noted that the situation in Ukraine is different now, as people have gradually begun to adapt.

"They are not psychologically broken... They are more adaptive. Although these are stresses, but stress, you know, did not break them – it raised their body's defense," Chaly said.

However, he noted that, on the other hand, Kyiv does not have much time: "Ukraine cannot wait another year or two, as the Europeans wanted."

"Now [US president] Trump broke Europe's approach. This is a good thing. Europe has woken up. And we need to make the most of it right now. Because we will have a window of opportunity next year... It always opens after the next cycle of military operations on land, which is the end of winter," the diplomat said.

He noted that if sanctions against the Russian energy sector were also effective, then the window of opportunity to start real negotiations ("not this whole imitation") would be in February-April 2026.

"And it is possible. But for this, we need to put pressure on Russia with sanctions. The United States does not want to do this. Europe can still do it," Chaly said.

You can watch the full interview at the link at the beginning of the text or below:

• On December 3, NATO secretary general Rutte said that if the negotiation process to end Russia's war against Ukraine is unsuccessful or takes too long, then the best way to put pressure on Russia will be the continuation of military aid to Kyiv and sanctions against Moscow.