CPD: Ignoring Russia's real motives could lead to war in the Baltics in four to six years
The American political elite still does not realize the basic principles that guide the Russian regime. If the situation does not change, Europe may get a new war in the Baltics in four to six years, said Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation.
Russia, he says, does not think in terms of compromise, and the regime of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not operate within the logic of profit, containment, or rules. Instead, Kovalenko notes, it is about a fanatical belief in power, a historical mission, and the right to dominate.
"This is not a rational model of behavior that can be "scare off" with sanctions or forced into peace through restrained diplomacy," he stressed.
Kovalenko believes that Washington is still more comfortable perceiving Russia as a "problematic partner" rather than as a purposeful enemy, which leaves room for negotiations.
At the same time, according to him, the Kremlin is not negotiating, but taking advantage of weakness. Putin perceives all attempts at dialogue, including "reset", "red lines" or "Normandy formats", as a manifestation of the West's fear, rather than a possibility of agreements, the head of the Central Development Center notes.
"Negotiations are needed only to gain time for the summer offensive. The goal of the Russian Federation is not to receive American sanctions here and now. And not to give a reason to provide us with more weapons," Kovalenko wrote.
He also pointed out the fallacy of the liberal approach to assessing the Russian Federation, when they project their own democratic values onto it, which are ignored there. This, in his opinion, is not a problem of lack of information, but an unwillingness to acknowledge the reality, which has already cost thousands of lives.
"If this continues, Europe will have a war in the Baltics in four to six years, and not only with Russia, but also with the Koreans and Iranian proxies," the head of the Central Military Commission warned.
- On March 20, 2025, the President of Lithuania said that the country is preparing for a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2030.
- On May 8, it was reported that the Netherlands was preparing for a Russian attack a year after the end of the war against Ukraine.
- On May 19, the Polish ambassador to Ukraine stated that the prospect of a Russian attack on NATO depends on whether Ukraine wins the war.
- The NYT reported that Russia is strengthening its military infrastructure near the border with Finland. NATO believes that Moscow could attack the country in five years.
- On May 22, it was reported that Finland was expecting an attack by the Russian Federation three to five years after the end of the war in Ukraine.
