France is preparing for a possible major war in Europe by 2030 – a strategic overview

The growing Russian threat could lead to a large-scale armed conflict in Europe by 2030. This was stated... it is said / it is being said / it's said / it's being said in the French doctrine in the field of defense and security "National Strategic Review – 2025".

The key goals for France by 2030 are to materially and morally arm the country to be prepared for a potential "major war in the heart of Europe."

In particular, emphasis is placed on increasing defense funding in order to rearm and strengthen the country's resilience in the event of war.

The review states that the risk of French military involvement in a war "in the vicinity of Europe" and the threat of hybrid destabilization actions against France have reached an unprecedented level since the end of the Cold War.

At the same time, they note that the risk of a conventional war on the territory of France itself does not seem to be a likely scenario.

The review also stated that Russia poses an immediate and "unprecedented" threat to France and all of Europe.

"The Kremlin has long and regularly portrayed France and Europeans as enemies in official statements. Prioritizing this threat... puts Europe in a situation of long-term confrontation," the review states.

Possible scenarios include new waves of offensives against Ukraine within three to five years, aggression against Moldova, in the Balkans, but also against NATO member countries in order to test the Alliance.

"The greatest risk would be if such aggression were combined with a large-scale operation in another theater, somewhere else in the world, which would lead to the diversion of American forces," the analysis states.

In view of this, it is noted that the outcome of the current phase of the war is extremely important for the future of Europe, and European security actually depends on it.

"Therefore, continued support for Ukraine, particularly military support, requires ambitious European engagement. Preserving European interests will also depend on the modalities of a lasting and just peace for Ukraine," the review emphasizes.

They also emphasize that the rapprochement between North Korea and Russia, and Iran and Russia, directly affects the security of France and Europe, as well as the balance of power in the Middle East and Asia.

• On June 9, 2025, Rutte stated that Russia is increasing military presence its potential, in particular, is increasing the production of tanks, armored vehicles, and various types of missiles. In five years, it will be ready to use military force against NATO.
• On June 24, Zelenskyy also confirmed that Russia may attack. NATO member countries already have five years to test the Alliance's strength.