The GUR does not think that Russia will attack NATO in a couple of years after the war with Ukraine. It will act differently

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine considers it unlikely that Russia will attack NATO countries in the short term, specifically in two to four years after the end of the war against Ukraine. This was reported by the DIU in response to an information request from LIGA.net .

Answering the question whether there is a real threat that Russia could start military actions against NATO countries two to four years after the end of the war against Ukraine, the intelligence service noted that the Kremlin continues to view Western countries as a potential threat of a possible armed confrontation in the future.

"At present, due to the protracted nature of the war in Ukraine (which requires large resource expenditures), the likelihood of such a conflict in the short term is very low," the response to the request reads.

At the end of May, the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service Oleh Ivashchenko expressed the opposite opinion: after the war against Ukraine is over, Russia will be ready to aggress against Europe in two to four years.

According to the DIU, Russia will continue its so-called "hybrid aggression" to weaken unity and create preconditions for strengthening pro-Kremlin forces in some European countries.

In this context, the rise to power of pro-Russian and radical political forces could lead to a breakdown in unity among NATO members and a reduction in assistance to Ukraine.

At the same time, the Kremlin will continue provocative measures in the border areas with NATO countries, such as conducting military exercises and creating a migration crisis, systematic violations of sea and air space, as well as in the cyber sphere.

"If the Kremlin is successful in implementing such measures in Europe, combined with increased support from China, Iran and North Korea, this could lead to an increase in the level of threat in Europe," the intelligence concluded.

• on March 20, 2025, the President of Lithuania said that the country is preparing for a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2030.
• On May 8, it was reported that the Netherlands is preparing for a Russian attack a year after the end of the war against Ukraine.
• On May 19, the Polish Ambassador to Ukraine said, that the prospect of a Russian attack on NATO depends on whether Ukraine wins the war.
• On May 22, it was reported that Finland expects a Russian attack three to five years after the end of the war in Ukraine.