Russia's attack on NATO countries unlikely, not enough force – ex-Trump adviser
A Russian attack on NATO countries is possible but unlikely. This was stated in an interview with LIGA.net by National Security Advisor to US President Donald Trump in 2018-2019 John Bolton.
"I do not believe that Russia has enough conventional military power to risk a conflict with NATO, despite NATO's shortcomings," he said .
According to Bolton, the Suwalki corridor (a nodal point along the border with Poland) is now critically important. After all, the "Kaliningrad exclave" is essentially a large Russian military base in the Baltic region. And, according to him, Russia would like to have land access to it, as it was in the Soviet Union's time.
But military action against NATO nations would be extremely risky for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Bolton says. Unless he had reason to believe Trump would not respond with military force.
"The Baltic states and Poland are now well above the 2% commitment. So even Trump, who said: "I'm not going to defend NATO members who spend less than 2% on defense," sees that they all spend more, much more. And in the case of Poland, more than 3%. Formally, the United States should respond," said the former Trump adviser .
But if the United States does not respond to Putin's aggression for any reason, it could lead to catastrophic consequences, Bolton said. Moreover, this would actually mean the "end" of NATO, as the provision of Article Five on "an attack on one is an attack on all" would be finally canceled.
"I think it would be a tragedy not only for the country that was aggressed, but for the entire Western world. It would demonstrate that the Soviet Union's goal since the Cold War to split the Western alliance has finally been realized," Bolton summarized .
- on March 20, the Lithuanian president said that the country is preparing for a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2030.
- On May 8, it was reported that the Netherlands is preparing for a Russian attack a year after the end of the war against Ukraine.
- On May 19, the Polish ambassador to Ukraine said that the prospect of a Russian attack on NATO depends on whether Ukraine wins the war.
- On May 19, the NYT reported that Russia is strengthening military infrastructure near the border with Finland. NATO believes that Moscow could attack the country in five years.
- On May 22, it was reported that Finland expects an attack by Russia three to five years after the end of the war in Ukraine
