Analyst Kapitonenko described pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the development of events after Istanbul

The most likely scenario for the development of events after Istanbul is the continuation of the war. Perhaps with a certain decrease in the intensity of hostilities. This forecast was expressed by Mykola Kapitonenko, an analyst at the International Center for Policy Studies, in a comment to the LIGA.net article.

According to him, against this background, the readiness of the parties for negotiations will be periodically checked.

"The Russians are betting on attrition, for them this is the optimal strategy," the analyst emphasized.

A less likely scenario, in his opinion, is that the parties will be sufficiently exhausted and Western pressure will be consolidated. Then it will come to attempts to freeze the war.

After that, the analyst believes, there are optimistic and pessimistic options for exiting the war.

Pessimistic – loss of support from the US, "which has other things to do". Europe lacks resources, determination, unity, and there are growing vacillations. Kyiv remains without the support of partners, under pressure from Russia, and is forced to accept Russian conditions. Then – the actual capitulation of Ukraine.

Optimistic, says Kapitonenko, with the help of the United States, Europe, and other partners, it will be possible to create a future of European security in which the probability of a new war is minimized.

In this scenario, Ukraine is guaranteed sovereignty, the ability to choose security formats, partners, and democratic development. Some territories are temporarily occupied, but the country has prospects for development.

There are intermediate options between these scenarios, the analyst concludes.

Events can unfold in different sequences. Ukraine wants a ceasefire, and only then peace terms. Russia – the opposite. It's a bit like the Minsk process, where in the end nothing worked.

"We will soon find out whether there is room for compromise here, or whether this is just a formal excuse for the Russians to continue disrupting the negotiations," he added.

• On the evening of May 14, Putin approved the composition of the Russian delegation for negotiations on the Russian-Ukrainian war in Turkey. He himself will not go to Istanbul.

• It later became known that Trump would also not travel to Turkey to participate in the negotiations.

• On May 15, it became known that Zelensky was ready to abandon negotiations with Russia in Istanbul, but American and European officials convinced him to go.