CPD: Russian propaganda is preparing the preconditions for a military invasion of the Baltic countries
Russian propaganda is laying the informational groundwork for a military invasion of the Baltic countries, ostensibly to protect the Russian-speaking population. This is stated in the analytical report "The Influence of Russian Propaganda in the Baltic Countries" by the Center for Counteracting Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council.
The center analyzed the information space of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to identify signs of Kremlin propaganda activities.
It is noted that after the start of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the Baltic countries significantly restricted Russian state media, so Russian propagandists operate on social networks, including Facebook, Telegram, TikTok, and X.
To identify pro-Russian narratives and methods of propaganda dissemination, the Center analyzed the activity of six Facebook pages with an audience of almost 123,000 subscribers, nine Telegram channels (78,000 readers), 12 TikTok accounts (162,000), and 15 accounts on the X network (211,400).
The center found that the key narrative of Russian propaganda in the Baltic countries is the claim that the EU and NATO are preparing for war with Russia, and that Moscow is "only responding to a threat." The theme of "discrimination against the Russian-speaking population" is also systematically exploited.
Among other common propaganda themes are the claims that aid to Ukraine is a mistake that harms the citizens of the Baltic countries, as well as the glorification of the USSR.
"Currently, Russian propaganda is laying the informational groundwork to justify the need for a military invasion of the Baltic countries, ostensibly to protect Russian-speaking people," the Center for Counter-Propaganda concluded.
According to the Center, the spread of these narratives indicates the potential existence of plans to invade Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia within the next four to six years.
- Intelligence agencies of various countries have repeatedly warned about Russia's plans to invade the Baltic countries. In particular, on March 25, the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia has predicted 15 scenarios of possible military conflicts by 2045.
- On March 30, the FT reported that the Baltic countries expect an increased Russian threat after a ceasefire in Ukraine.
- On April 1, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister stated that the Russians are preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO.
- On June 24, Bloomberg modeled the most likely scenario of a Russian attack on NATO. The most likely scenario is an attack on Lithuania or on all the Baltic countries at once.
