FT: Russia has modernized ballistic missiles to bypass Patriot systems

Russia has been able to modify its missiles to bypass Ukraine's air defense systems. This is evidenced by "months of devastating air attacks," according to Financial Times, citing unnamed current and former Ukrainian and Western officials.

The bombing of Ukrainian drone manufacturers in the summer of 2025 was a vivid example of how Russia is improving its ballistic missiles to better combat US Patriot batteries, journalists' interlocutors said.

They claim that Russia may have modified its Iskander-M system, which launches missiles with an estimated range of up to 500 km, as well as Kinzhal air-launched missiles that can fly up to 480 km.

The missiles now follow a typical trajectory before reversing direction and entering a steep terminal dive or performing maneuvers that confuse and avoid Patriot interceptors.

At the same time, Kyiv is also facing a slowdown in the supply of air defense missiles from the United States.

The FT analyzes the Ukrainian Air Force's reports on air defense: ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but dropped to 6% in September despite fewer launches.

At least four drone manufacturing plants in and around Kyiv were severely damaged by missiles in the summer of 2025, according to current and former Ukrainian officials. Among them is Turkey's Bayraktar plant, which was hit by Russia's on August 28.

Patriot systems are the only ones in Ukraine's arsenal capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. The Russian army's cruise missiles can be shot down by less sophisticated air defense systems, but officials say modifications have made it more difficult.

A Western official familiar with the Patriot performance data said that the first sign of Russian missile modernization was a marked decline in intercept rates. A "pattern" emerged in which incoming missiles behaved differently in their "final phase", deviating from pre-set kill settings.

A report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency says that the Russian army has modernized its missiles so that they can change trajectory and perform maneuvers instead of flying along a traditional ballistic trajectory.

According to Western and Ukrainian officials, Kyiv provides data on the use of Patriot missiles to the Pentagon and U.S. manufacturers. The data is used to make updates needed to keep pace with Russia's adjustments, but one official said those improvements often lag behind Moscow's tactics .

Analysts told the FT that the reason for the increased effectiveness of Russian missiles is likely to be software adjustments.

Fabian Hoffmann, a missile researcher at the University of Oslo, noted that the Iskander-M could maneuver quite aggressively in its final phase. Instead of costly hardware changes, tweaks to the guidance systems could instruct the missile to perform a quick maneuver just before hitting the target and then dive hard, making it harder for Patriot to track and hit.

"A steeper final trajectory is something that can be programmed into a rocket," Hoffman said .

LIGA.net has asked the Air Force of Ukraine for a comment, the news will be updated as soon as a response is received.

• In September 2025, Defense Minister Shmyhal informed partners about Ukraine's need for 10 Patriot systems .
• Currently, Ukraine uses Patriot systems only to shoot down ballistic missiles.