WP: Ukraine is preparing for a new summer Russian offensive on the Donetsk region
Russia will launch a new large-scale offensive in the Donetsk region this summer and it is likely that it has already begun, the Washington Post reports, citing Ukrainian military officials and analysts.
According to some interlocutors, the offensive has likely already begun amid the stagnation of the US-brokered peace process.
US analysts said Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is likely confident he can still win the war militarily, although sanctions and heavy casualties could gradually undermine Russia's military machine, and this summer could be its last chance for a serious push.
With the main offensive on Donetsk, the Kremlin also plans to launch smaller attacks along the border of Sumy and Kharkiv regions in northeastern Ukraine, analysts say.
The goal is to increase pressure on Ukrainian troops on the front line, as well as on the border with Sumy and Kharkiv regions in northeastern Ukraine.
"Russia plans to 'try to tie down Ukrainian troops along the front line, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but otherwise they will prioritize Pokrovska and Kostyantynivka,'" said Mykola Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.
He added that the Russian Federation has the ability to attack Konstantinovka from three directions.
"I expect them to focus on the Donetsk region. Everything else will be a distraction and a waste of Ukrainian resources and attention," Beleskov said.
Despite some analysts predicting the fall of these cities as early as December 2024, Ukraine has held them for almost a year. However, the publication adds, the Ukrainian army continues to face a shortage of personnel and weapons, while Russia is exceeding its mobilization plans. However, it still lacks the forces for large-scale offensives, analysts and Ukrainian military officials say.
It cost the Russian Federation 80,000 troops to capture Avdiivka in February 2024. Currently, 125,000 Russian troops are stationed on the border with Sumy and Kharkiv regions. This, according to data released by Ukrainian military intelligence, is not enough to take two regional centers.
"Most likely, these troops will be used to occupy pieces of Ukrainian land along the border," said Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence.
However, according to Chernyak, Russian troops will use these new strongholds inside Ukraine to put pressure on both regional centers, in particular Sumy.
- On May 21, a spokesman for the "Kharkiv" group confirmed that Russian troops are withdrawing and accumulating reserves in the area of the city of Vovchansk and the settlement of Dvorichne, Kupyansky district, Kharkiv region, which they plan to use to create a so-called buffer zone .
- On May 22, Putin announced the creation of a "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine. The Central Military Commission noted that in this way he is demonstrating that he does not want to cease fire.
- Foreign Minister Sibiga noted that the Russian Federation's statement about the "buffer zone" came against the backdrop of active efforts to achieve peace .
