Axios: Israel warns U.S. that Iranian missile drills could be a cover for attack

Israeli officials warned the US administration Donald Trump last weekend that Iran's missile drills could be preparations for a strike against Israel. This was reported by the Axios citing three unnamed interlocutors among US and Israeli officials.

Israeli interlocutors said that although the collected intelligence data shows only the movement of forces in Iran, the IDF's risk tolerance is much lower than it was before, two years after the surprise Hamas invasion on October 7, 2023.

One of them added that Israeli intelligence had expressed similar concerns six weeks ago after it detected the movement of Iranian missiles. But it didn't lead to anything.

"The probability of an Iranian attack is less than 50%, but no one wants to take the risk and just say it's just a drill," said one Israeli source.

At the same time, the United States said that US intelligence has no signs of an imminent Iranian attack.

On Saturday, December 20, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, Chief of Staff of the Israeli Armed Forces, called Admiral Brad Cooper, Chairman of the US Central Command, and said that Israel was concerned about the missile drills that Iran had launched a few days ago.

Zamir told Cooper that recent Iranian missile movements and other operational moves could also be a cover for a surprise attack. He called on U.S. and Israeli forces to closely coordinate their defenses.

Cooper was in Tel Aviv on Sunday and met with Zamir and senior IDF officials to discuss the situation. The IDF declined to comment. The Central Command did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The interlocutors noted that the biggest risk is that a war between Israel and Iran could erupt as a result of a miscalculation, when each side believes that the other is planning an attack and tries to prevent it.

The Prime Minister of Israel is expected to, Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Trump on December 29 in Miami. According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu wants to discuss Iran's efforts to restore its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of another strike on the country in 2026.

Israeli intelligence sees the first signs of a resumption of Iran's missile build-up. The interlocutors claim that by the end of the 12-day war in June, Iran had 1,500 missiles, compared to 3,000 before the war, and 200 launchers out of 400.

The Iranians have begun to take steps to restore their forces, but have not returned to the level they had before the war. Israeli intelligence services do not believe that the pace of Iranian capacity recovery creates a need for urgent military action in the next two to three months, but emphasize that this may become a more pressing issue later next year.

• In September, WP wrote that Iran has accelerated construction at a mysterious underground facility near the Natanz nuclear complex, a few months after The United States and Israel have destroyed its main nuclear facilities.
• On December 20, NBC News wrote that Israel is preparing to inform Trump on the options for repeated strikes on Iran due to concerns over Tehran's missile program.