Germany sees Russia's hybrid attacks as prologue to broader conflict – Bloomberg

Germany considers Russian hybrid attacks to be a prelude to a larger conflict. This was reported by the agency Bloomberg with reference to the relevant document of the German Ministry of Defense.

Positioning itself as NATO's main center in Europe, Germany expects Russia to first covertly attack it through hybrid attacks – using irregular or non-military tactics – on energy and defense infrastructure, the document says.

It summarizes recommendations for cooperation between different levels of government and institutions in the event of a conflict with Moscow.

The document states that only after an open armed attack on NATO's eastern flank will Germany increasingly be threatened or attacked by military means such as long-range missiles, attack drones, and special forces.

"The detected hybrid measures and attacks, especially those carried out in Germany, should be seen as a tool deliberately used by Russia in its security policy and fight against the 'collective West'. At the same time, these measures may also be preparations for a military conflict," the German Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The media reports that the language goes beyond what has been used before and echoes a recent warning from Martin Jaeger, the new president of Germany's BND intelligence service, who told lawmakers in October that Russia is determined to test European borders and could turn the conflict into a "hot confrontation" at any time.

As stated in the German National Security Strategy, the Ministry of Defense considers Russia to be "the greatest and most immediate threat to Germany's security."

At a regular government briefing on Monday, a Defense Ministry spokeswoman declined to comment on a military document called the German Operational Plan (OPLAN), saying it was confidential. She added in general that Russia has stepped up covert attacks on German infrastructure.

The German Defense Ministry's plan cites national and foreign intelligence data that indicate Russia's desire to develop capabilities and strategic options for waging a full-scale war against NATO and surviving it.

"Even if Russia's war against Ukraine continues unchanged, it is expected that Russia will develop these capabilities and strategic options no later than 2029," the document says.

At the same time, the Defense Ministry is convinced that Russia wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with the United States, so it seeks to limit itself to Europe.

In the event of a conventional attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank, Germany is not expected to become a frontline state and an arena for direct ground troop engagement, the ministry said.

"However, Russia will do its utmost to prevent or at least impede the deployment of NATO forces on the eastern flank for deterrence and, if necessary, defense," the statement said.

The Ministry of Defense has concluded that Russia is deliberately taking hybrid measures to cause anxiety among citizens, and is investigating possible weaknesses in cooperation between different levels of the German government.

• In March 2025, German intelligence warned that Russia could be ready for war against NATO by 2030.
• In August, Budanov said that Russia plans to spend by 2036, $1.1 trillion for rearmament to prepare for war with NATO.
• In December, it was reported that Germany has developed a secret plan in the event of a war in Europe, which provides for five stages of escalation.