Analysts: Trzaskowski's victory in Poland's elections is better for Ukraine than Navrotsky's
Analysts believe that it would be more beneficial and promising for Ukraine if Rafał Trzaskowski won the Polish presidential election than Karol Navrotsky. As they said in a commentary to LIGA.net for text on the election, this will contribute to more stable support for Ukraine's integration into the European Union and NATO.
It is noted that during the election campaign, all Polish politicians actively used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in an attempt to gain the support of voters with nationalist views. However, as noted by Polish publicist Marek Kozubel, candidate Navrotsky especially focused on positioning Ukraine as a "hostile state" not because of pro-Russian views, but because of opportunistic interests.
"It's common for Polish politicians to attack a country that looks weaker to them. The Russians have nuclear weapons, so they should sit tight. If the situation resembled 2022, when the Armed Forces were moving forward, Navrotsky's position would be the opposite," Kozubel believes .
With Trzaskowski's victory, the situation will be better for relations with Poland and support for Ukraine's integration into the EU and NATO, said Dariusz Materniak, founder and head of the Poland-Ukraine Research Center. According to him, if the president and the government represent the same party, Poland's foreign policy will be more coherent .
However, analysts believe that Warsaw's assistance to Kyiv will not change dramatically no matter who wins. Both camps agree that Poland should support Ukraine, and that the biggest threat to Warsaw is Russia.
"Therefore, if he wins, I do not expect any major changes in Warsaw's policy toward Kyiv. I expect the current course to continue," Materniak said .
Mykola Knyazhytskyi, an MP from Eurosolidarity and co-chair of the group on relations with Poland in the Verkhovna Rada, also said LIGA.net, that there will be no major changes in Polish-Ukrainian relations after the election. If Navrotsky wins, support may not be as active, but it will still continue.
"There will be no catastrophe, because Tusk's government supports Ukraine," Knyazhytsky said.
However, support may decline if Polish politicians see Ukrainians losing the war.
"Poles respect the strong. This explains why they actively helped Ukraine in 2022 – because of the victories of the Armed Forces. Because they saw that the terrible Russian army, which they had been scared of, was losing. Everyone wants to join the glorious victory," Kozubel summarized .
- on May 19, after the first round of the election was counted, Tshaskovsky beat Navrotsky by less than 2%.
- On May 22, Navrotsky said he considered the idea of Ukraine in NATO "ridiculous." on May 23, Ukraine's ambassador to Warsaw called Navrotsky's promise to obstruct Kyiv's NATO membership unacceptable, and Tusk's as high treason.
