Politico: Trump may give Europe security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for Greenland

Administration of the President of the United States Donald Trump could give Europe security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for expanding its presence in Greenland. This is one of four possible US scenarios for Greenland, which called politico's interlocutors.

The media spoke to nine representatives of the European Union, NATO insiders, defense experts and diplomats. According to them, Denmark and its allies in the EU will resist any attempt to separate Greenland, but the United States allegedly has a trump card – and that is Ukraine.

Based on this, European diplomats believe that the United States can offer a package of measures "security for security". As part of this package, the EU would receive firmer guarantees from Washington regarding Ukraine, and in exchange, the United States would like to expand its role in Greenland.

This option may seem like a "bitter pill," but it would be easier to accept than any other if you "make Trump angry," the interlocutors say. According to them, he could impose sanctions against Europe, withdraw from peace talks to end Russia's war against Ukraine, or even support dictator Vladimir Putin.

Another likely scenario is to influence the Greenlandic independence movement to fuel the society from within. The United States could use tactics similar to those used by Russia to pressure political outcomes in Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine.

This may help to facilitate the signing of an agreement between Greenland and the United States, the interlocutors believe. Especially against the backdrop of the fact that, according to a 2025 survey, 56% of the island's residents are allegedly ready to vote for independence from Denmark.

The third scenario is to offer Greenland a "sweetheart deal" like the COFA (Compact of Free Association), according to which the United States provides security and a number of other services to the island, and in return gets military access.

The United States has already signed similar agreements with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau.

"The main distinguishing feature of Trump as a negotiator is that he is a man who imposes his will on those with whom he negotiates, and a man with a very long history of betraying those with whom he has made deals... I don't see any benefit for the Greenlandic people, except for a very short-term boost to their self-esteem," said Thomas Crosby, associate professor of military operations at the Royal Danish Defense College.

The fourth scenario is a possible US military invasion of Greenland. According to the interlocutors, Washington's army would allegedly be able to quickly occupy the island thanks to its military bases with people and equipment already there.

Currently, about 500 US soldiers are stationed there at the Pitufik base and about 10 employees of the US Consulate in Nuuk. Washington also deploys about 100 National Guard soldiers seasonally (in summer) to support research missions in the Arctic.

However, any invasion would have no "legal basis" under U.S. and international law, the interlocutors said. Such actions would also severely undermine the confidence of allies and NATO in the United States.

• on January 3, 2026, Trump adviser Miller's wife, Katie, revealed a map of Greenland in the colors of the US flag. Her husband later said that no one would to fight with the United States because of the island's future.
• Denmark recalled the allied commitments of the United States and told about the consequences of a possible attack.
• In the comments LIGA.net the Danish MP said that if Trump will be allowed to take Greenlandthis legitimizes Putin's aggression.
• According to The Economist, the US prepare a deal with Greenland, bypassing Denmark to conclude the COFA agreement. And European countries, together with Copenhagen, are working on a countermeasure plan USA.