CPD: Russia is preparing a large-scale information campaign against Ukraine and the West
Russian propaganda will launch new information operations in the next two weeks aimed at undermining trust in the Ukrainian negotiating team in Istanbul. The Kremlin will also intensify attempts to intimidate Western partners and instill fear among Ukrainians in frontline regions, the Center for Countering Disinformation writes .
Discrediting the Ukrainian negotiating team in Istanbul
The Center predicts that Russian propaganda will continue its campaign to discredit the Ukrainian negotiating team in Istanbul. The main focus will be on undermining trust both within Ukrainian society and among international partners.
Western channels will broadcast messages about the alleged "non-constructiveness" of the Ukrainian side and the "procrastination" of the negotiation process.
Spreading the narrative of alleged "Ukrainian terrorism"
Russian propaganda will accuse the Armed Forces of Ukraine of "atrocities" and "terrorist attacks" on Russian territory, in particular in connection with Operation "Web" , which resulted in the destruction of military airfields.
Strikes on legitimate Russian targets will be presented as "terrorist." Demonstrative detentions of alleged "Ukrainian saboteurs" or "terrorists" are also likely.
Discrediting the state and special services
After the successful Operation "Web", theses about the threat of Ukraine to the United States appeared in the Russian media space.
"Allegedly, Ukraine can use this experience to conduct special operations on the territory of the United States or share relevant technologies with terrorist groups," the Central Intelligence Agency reports.
There are also messages about the alleged external control of the Security Service of Ukraine by the US or Britain and Ukraine's inability to independently implement complex special operations.
Accordingly, in this way, propaganda will support Russia's thesis about an independent Ukraine, a "failed state."
Manipulations around the NATO summit
Russian propaganda will reinforce narratives about "Western fatigue" from the war, "disillusionment with the Ukrainian leadership," and "a split within the Alliance."
Theses about "NATO's inability to guarantee security" and "reducing Ukraine's priority" for the US will also be spread.
"The goal of these manipulations will be an attempt to undermine trust in Euro-Atlantic unity, demoralize Ukrainian society, and at the same time mobilize pro-Russian sentiments in the Western information environment," analysts note.
Manipulations surrounding the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead
The main efforts of Russian propaganda will be aimed at spreading several key narratives: "Ukraine tortures prisoners and violates international humanitarian law", "the number of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian captivity is many times greater than the number of Russians in Ukrainian captivity", "Ukraine disrupts prisoner exchanges".
Narratives will also be spread about Ukraine's alleged refusal to collect the bodies of its soldiers in order not to pay "compensation to families," etc.
The situation at the front, instilling fear and provoking division
Hostile propaganda will purposefully inflame the situation by spreading exaggerated reports about the "rapid advance" of Russian troops in various sectors of the front.
Particular attention will be paid to the dissemination of news about the threat of capturing new territories, including large settlements.
It is also expected that Russia will intensify psychological operations against servicemen of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
"Campaigns calling on Ukrainian fighters to surrender are possible, as well as the spread of new fakes about "catastrophic losses" among Ukrainian troops, including staged videos," the CPD notes.
Threats from the West
Russia will continue to intimidate Western partners with nuclear rhetoric, accusing them of "provoking World War III."
These signals will be broadcast through official statements by Russian diplomats, as well as through controlled media, expert platforms, and anonymous propaganda resources working for a Western audience.
These statements will be presented as evidence of "aggressive intentions" by Europe and NATO. Particular attention will be paid to France and the United Kingdom.
Speculation surrounding Ukraine's demands to return kidnapped Ukrainian children
On the one hand, Russian propaganda will claim that in fact the Russian authorities "saved Ukrainian children" by taking them out of the combat zone, on the other hand, they will minimize the number of children taken out of Ukraine and manipulate the numbers.
In parallel, it is expected that Russian propaganda will increase the spread of outright fakes regarding alleged "crimes of Ukraine against the children of Donbas", "trafficking in children to the West from Ukraine", "organ trafficking", etc.
Pride Month
In June, Russia steps up attempts to divide the societies of democratic countries, accusing the West of "aggressively imposing" LGBT values.
In the countries of the Global South, this will be presented as "moral degradation", contrasting it with Russia's "traditional values".
Discrediting the G7 summit.
The main goals of such campaigns may be to weaken international support for Ukraine, as well as to promote messages about the alleged loss of effectiveness and influence of the G7 as a global format.
The Russians will spread messages about the G7's "loss of influence," the "double standards," and the West's "insincerity."
"Such rhetoric may aim to present the G7 as a morally compromised club operating with selective humanity, thereby undermining the legitimacy of the Western position not only on Ukraine, but also in the broader international context," the CPD concluded.
- On May 26, it was reported that Russia was spreading a fake about the placement of Ukrainian Armed Forces weapons in residential buildings and a ban on the evacuation of civilians.
- On May 29, the Central Intelligence Agency reported that the Kremlin was trying to portray Ukraine as a "security threat" to Africa.
